No Black Box, No Vibes-Only Rankings: Here's Exactly How Our Fantasy Model Works

Every fantasy site has rankings. Most of them won't tell you how they're made.

We will. Here's the whole recipe, no secret sauce, no "trust me, bro."

The ingredients

Our rankings run on public data from ESPN's fantasy feeds: weekly projections, game-by-game box scores, injury designations and roster percentages. Our system refreshes it automatically on a schedule throughout the day (NFL data updates roughly every 15 minutes), so the page you see is never days old.

We're not affiliated with ESPN. We just use the same public numbers everyone can see and do our own math on top.

The formula

Every player gets an Illegal Motion Proj, our projected fantasy points for the week. It's a blend of three things:

• 40%: ESPN's weekly projection. A solid baseline that already bakes in a lot of context.
• 35%: Season points per game. Who you've been all year.
• 25%: Last-three-games average. Who you've been lately.

Why not just use one? Because each one lies in its own way. Projections can be slow to react. Season averages get dragged down by one bad game in Week 1. Recent form overreacts to a single fluky touchdown. Blend them, and the lies start canceling out.

The matchup adjustment

This is where it gets fun.

For every position, we calculate how many fantasy points each defense has allowed per game this season, straight from the weekly box scores. Then we rank all 32 defenses: Matchup rank 1 is the toughest, 32 is the easiest.

The season-average and last-three parts of a player's score get scaled up or down by as much as 15% based on that matchup. A receiver facing the defense that's been torched by receivers all year gets a boost. A tight end facing a wall gets docked.

We cap it at 15% on purpose. Matchups matter, but talent matters more. That's why we keep telling you to start your studs.

The injury multiplier

Injuries get a simple, transparent haircut based on the official designation:

• Questionable: score × 0.85
• Doubtful: score × 0.4
• Out, IR or suspended: score × 0
• On bye: 0, obviously

Is it perfect? No. Plenty of questionable players play full games. But it reflects real risk, and it's honest about it. We always recommend checking official inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff.

Scoring formats

Our base numbers are in PPR. For Half-PPR, we subtract 0.5 points per projected reception. For Standard, we subtract a full point per reception. Toggle between them at the top of the rankings page.

Tiers

Rankings are nice. Tiers are better. We draw a tier break wherever the gap between two consecutive players is unusually large, specifically bigger than the average gap plus one standard deviation. Translation: if two guys are in the same tier, the difference between them is close to a coin flip. Pick the one you like.

Start/Sit uses the same brain

Our free Start/Sit tool runs the same model. Pick two to four players, and it compares their projections, matchups, recent form and injury status side by side.

What it can't do

Opinion, clearly labeled: no model knows that a coach is about to change the backfield rotation, or that a receiver is playing through something the injury report didn't mention. That's where the news side of our site comes in, and why our weekly Start/Sit column adds context the numbers can't.

The model is a tool. You're still the manager. Use both.

The fine print

Rankings are generated automatically from public stats and are for entertainment only. They are free fantasy advice, not betting advice, and there are no guarantees. If you play paid fantasy contests where legal, set limits and play responsibly. See our Responsible Gaming page for resources.